August 14, 2017

Why the Dodgers won't win the World Series (unless they do)

Will a champ be crowned at Chavez Ravine again?
At playoff time last year, with the Cubs being favored to win the 2016 Fall Classic, I wrote a post explaining why you shouldn't bet all your money on them.  The logic is simple: There are 10 playoff teams, eight of which get past the wildcard game and into a League Division Series.  If all teams were equally matched, they would each have a 1 in 8 (or 12.5%) chance of winning the World Series.  But the teams are not completely equally matched.

July 15, 2017

How 'bout them predictions?

I'm going to sound foolish when someone reads this in 6 months
Before the Red Sox had played more than handful of Spring Training games, I came up with a list of 10 bold predictions for them this year.  Let's see how they look shortly after the midway point of the season.

1. By middle of season Drew Pomeranz will be trusted as much as Porcello
>>> Well, it is the middle of the season.  Pomz is 9-4, 3.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, Pretty Ricky is 4-11 4.75, 8.2.   I think it's fair to say this is a true statement.

2. We will get at least 10 starts from arms other than the six currently vying for rotation spots (Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, Rodriguez)*
(*)I wrote the above before the Price news broke.  I hate being right already about too much pitching, but I’ll stick to the general statement that we’ll need more than 10 starts from pitchers other than the six who pitch the most games, whoever they may be.
>>> Our top 5 pitchers in terms of games started have been Porcello, Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and Price.  Number 6 is Stephen Wright. So far, we've already had 11 starts from other guys (Johnson, Kendrick, Fister and Velazquez).  Half way through the season this prediction has already been met.

July 09, 2017

Virtual Red Sox in OOTP at the All-Star Break

It’s the All-Star break.  Not only in the MLB, but also in my OOTP season.  I’ve been simulating managing the Red Sox for the 2017 season.  

As mentioned in an earlier posting, just like in real life, the tough Boston media is skeptical of a new manager, but I’m determined to prove them wrong. 

This isn’t the only place where the game imitates reality.  My team has been beset with injuries.  At one point all my 2nd base options were on the DL. Not just Pedey, but Rutledge, Marrero and Hernandez were all out at the same time, forcing me to improvise.   And don't get me started on the pitchers.

June 18, 2017

I'm sorry, Mr. Thornburg



It's my fault.  Every year I answer a list of preseason questions about the Red Sox.  This year I was asked if there was an unheralded player that people should keep an eye on this season.  I answered that Tyler Thornburg was going to be a lights out set up guy that would give us a very solid bullpen.
Now, our bullpen HAS vastly exceeded expectations so far, but Thornburg has not been a part of it, nor will he be for the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, this isn't the first time that my preseason forecast has cursed a player that season.  In fact, it seems that whatever player(s) I highlight in my posts end up under performing that season.

In 2012, when asked about what prospect could make an impact I picked Jose Iglesias, saying that "If Boston is scoring lots of runs, but infield defense becomes a problem, he could be called up early to solidify the shortstop position".
Well, he got called up in late August and batted all of .118.  As far as being a defensive upgrade, I'll admit that his defense did help the Red Sox win the World Series.  But that wasn't until in 2013, when he was making errors for the Tigers against us in the ALCS.

May 16, 2017

Alberta Pro Ballplayers

I often talk about our local ballplayers on twitter, but it’s been a while since I gave a more lengthy update on what’s been happening with these players.  Here's a quick recap on all the Alberta products playing pro ball.  (I think - if I missed someone, PLEASE let me know!)


Mike Soroka:
This Calgarian, who was a first round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2015, got promoted to the AA Mississippi Braves and got off to a hot start.  In his first three starts he posted a 1.62 ERA and struck out 18 while only walking one batter -  Chris Sale like numbers!